UN report says 1.5 °C warming goal no longer realistic

The latest UN Environment Programme report concludes that the 1.5 °C goal set by the Paris Agreement is no longer realistic, even when the world follows the steepest possible emissions‑cut path. The study shows that the lowest‑warming scenario would still see temperatures rise to 1.7–1.8 °C before declining, an overshoot of the target. It stresses that staying below 1.5 °C would be impossible without dramatic policy changes and rapid deployment of carbon‑removal technologies.

Under the report’s scenario, global greenhouse‑gas emissions would need to fall 18 % by 2030, 45 % by 2035 and 69 % by 2040 relative to 2025 levels. Achieving these cuts would also require large‑scale carbon dioxide removal, through reforestation and the early‑stage deployment of carbon‑capture systems.

Fossil‑fuel emissions rose slightly, while emissions from other gases remained steady or fell slightly.

Current national pledges are far short of what is needed. Only 63 % of countries had submitted third‑round pledges by COP30, leaving a large gap between ambition and action.