Scientists say El Niño could be forecast year ahead

Scientists have identified conditions that let climate models predict some El Niño and La Niña events about a year in advance. The finding, published in Science Advances, could give communities and decision-makers much more time to prepare for extreme weather.

The research examined more than 7,500 historical forecasts from climate models developed in nine countries. It found that forecasts started during La Niña performed well even a year ahead, while those beginning from neutral conditions were far less reliable.

What the study shows

Freund said, "Our study identifies valuable additional information for predicting El Niño and La Niña events well ahead of time." Ramesh added, "We’ve known for some time that the starting conditions affect how well model forecasts perform, but our study really shows how drastic those differences in performance can be."

The authors say the finding could improve early warning systems, but the method is still a few steps away from being used by forecasting agencies. If it is applied, communities could get more time to manage water, adjust farming schedules and reduce damage from droughts, floods and other climate impacts.

The UN weather agency warns that the current El Niño could be unprecedented in strength, with impacts extending into 2027. Experts say governments can store and distribute water more carefully and adjust irrigation, while farmers can protect crops and livestock from extreme heat.