NASA maps 2026 El Niño, matching 1997 pattern

In October 2026, sea‑level measurements show higher water across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, a hallmark of El Niño. NASA’s Earth Observatory uses data from the Sentinel‑6 Michael Freilich satellite to map these anomalies. The satellite images highlight red‑hued areas where the ocean surface is above average, mirroring the pattern seen in October 1997.

Altimetry and pattern comparison

Altimetry satellites measure sea‑surface height, revealing how warm water piles up in the western Pacific and then shifts eastward as trade winds weaken. The 2026 anomaly shows low sea level in the west and high in the east, the same tilt seen in 1997–98. Unlike the 2015–16 event, which had less water reaching South America, the 2026 pattern extends all the way to the continent, indicating a potentially stronger impact. Scientists say the current El Niño is on track to be even bigger than past events.

If the 2026 El Niño follows the 1997–98 pattern, it could trigger heavy rains in California and the southern United States, similar to that year’s flooding. The 1997–98 El Niño also caused fires in Indonesia and the Amazon, crop failures in southern Africa, and coastal flooding in Southern California. The 2015–16 event produced different rainfall patterns, showing the variability of El Niño impacts.

Outlook and monitoring

An outlook for the next three months called for an 83 % chance that the El Niño would remain strong through early 2027, but the exact winter impacts remain uncertain because the atmosphere can alter the signal. Researchers are using the same altimetry satellites to track sea‑surface height and refine predictions as the event unfolds.

El Niño is part of a natural climate pattern that occurs roughly every two to seven years, bringing warmer‑than‑normal water to the equatorial Pacific. Scientists note that finding a 'typical' El Niño is elusive because each event differs in where the warmth builds and how the atmosphere responds. The 2026 event’s similarity to 1997–98 gives hope that its impacts may be predictable.