Lancet Study Identifies Two Health Threats With Extinction Potential

A team of international experts has cataloged 17 major global health threats facing humanity in a study published in The Lancet. Physician and health economist Christopher JL Murray from the University of Washington co-chaired the commission behind the report. He stated that while the scale of these dangers is striking, humanity still has the agency to act if leaders decide now.

Among the risks listed, two carry an extinction potential for humans between now and 2100 despite low probabilities. These threats are identified as malicious artificial intelligence, including the use of AI to create new bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with resulting nuclear famine. Other dangers like asteroid strikes were excluded because their likelihood of occurring this century is very low.

The researchers used modeling to estimate avoidable death and disability measured using units called disability-adjusted life-years, known as DALYs. Obesity topped the list for potentially avoidable burden, estimated at 23.1 billion DALYs by 2100. This amount corresponds to about 46 COVID-19 pandemics based on the best- and worst-case scenarios.

The baseline forecast suggests a total global burden of 246 billion DALYs between 2025 and 2100, roughly equivalent to 500 COVID-19 pandemics. However, the researchers note that these totals cannot be added together directly due to overlap in health problems faced by individuals. They emphasize that 1 billion DALYs is comparable to two COVID-19 pandemics to show the critical nature of the threats.

Fifteen other major catastrophic risks were identified, each associated with more than 1 billion potentially avoidable DALYs. These include air pollution, climate change, antimicrobial resistance, and income inequality among others. The report notes that higher rates of education could reduce disease burden by improving health and slowing population growth.

To address these issues, the commission calls for governments to build and fund threat-ready health systems immediately. They also recommend dramatically increasing investment in breakthrough innovation across health, climate, and technology sectors. A third recommendation is to create a Monitor of 21st Century Global Threats to Health for continual tracking of assessments.

The Lancet editors wrote that the findings aim to move global health beyond considering individual harms in isolation. They believe this commission can catalyze actions to protect the future of health and humanity. Doing so will require broader thinking about where the biggest threats lie compared to current approaches.