GTA 6 launch could cost US economy $1B

GTA 6 is scheduled to launch in November 2026, after a wait of roughly thirteen years since the release of GTA 5. The long-awaited title has been the subject of rumours and speculation for a long time.

Economic impact

Professor José García Montalvo of Pompeu Fabra University estimates that the launch could cost the United States about $1 billion in lost productivity. He bases the figure on roughly 1.5 million worker absences and an average yearly output of about $70,000 per US worker, which would translate into a short-term productivity dip of around 2%.

Take-Two Interactive chief executive Strauss Zelnick told shareholders the company expects more than $1 billion in operating cash flow this fiscal year, with GTA 6 the main driver. That figure almost exactly matches the estimated loss to the US economy, as the money moves from American employers to Take-Two and Rockstar Games.

Much of the windfall generated by the title is likely to flow to the United Kingdom, as Rockstar North, the studio behind the game, is based in Edinburgh. This means that while American workplaces absorb the productivity loss, the majority of the revenue is earned abroad.

Newzoo estimates that GTA 6 could sell at least 37 million copies in its opening week, with global first-week retail bookings running as high as $4.5 billion. The company also projects pre-order sales of around $260 million globally for the week before launch.